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    Home»Health»Tricky Assumptions Behind GBD 2019 on Red Meat Health Risks
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    Tricky Assumptions Behind GBD 2019 on Red Meat Health Risks

    M.KaratasBy M.Karatas5. August 2022No Comments3 Mins Read
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    Share
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    Honoring Alice Stanton and Colleagues

    1

    • Stanton AV
    • Leroy F
    • Elliott C.
    • Man N
    • Wall P
    • De Smet S
    Estimate of 36x more deaths attributed to red meat consumption in GBD in 2019: Is this reliable?

    We also support Stanton and colleagues’ call for further clarification, justification, or reconsideration that the theoretical minimum risk exposure level for GBD-selected raw red meat is zero. with their latest quote. Not only does the increase in estimated burden seem implausible, but the lack of transparency in the assumptions underlying the calculation undermines confidence in the GBD estimate.

    If the assumptions used in the study are not clearly stated and explained, the results will be questionable and difficult to reproduce. Preventability estimates rely heavily on underlying assumptions. This is as outlined in the discussion on the population-attributable fraction method.

    2

    What does population imputed fraction mean?

    ,

    3

    • Azadna Jafabad S
    • Calimian M
    • Roshani S
    • and others.
    Estimating the population-attributable fraction of cardiovascular disease at different levels of plasma total cholesterol in a large cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and therapeutic reach.

    Moreover, insufficient clarity of such assumptions may reduce their use in policy making.

    For more than 20 years, World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) International has been at the forefront of investigating the relationship between diet, nutrition, physical activity, and cancer. After reviewing the evidence associated with unprocessed red meat, we concluded that red and processed meat are causative factors in the development of colorectal cancer. Nonetheless, neither the WCRF nor any other international body recommends avoiding meat entirely. Red meat is an important source of several nutrients in many diets around the world.

    Four

    What role does meat play in a healthy diet?

    Eliminating meat from such a diet is impractical and unrealistic, with risks of nutritional deficiencies determined to outweigh future cancer risks.

    Five

    • Knuppel A
    • Paper K
    • Fensom Goalkeeper
    • and others.
    Meat consumption and cancer risk: a prospective analysis in the UK Biobank.

    ,

    6

    World Cancer Research FundAmerican Cancer Institute
    Diet, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Cancer: A Global Perspective: An Overview of the Third Expert Report.

    The lack of a clear basis for the assumptions underlying the GBD estimate is troubling, unsupported by evidence, and unrealistic.

    We declare no competing interests.

    References

    1. 1.
      • Stanton AV
      • Leroy F
      • Elliott C.
      • Man N
      • Wall P
      • De Smet S

      Estimate of 36x more deaths attributed to red meat consumption in GBD in 2019: Is this reliable?

      lancet. 2022; 399: e23-e26

    2. 2.

      What does population imputed fraction mean?

      Prior chronic illness. 2007; Four: A14

    3. 3.
      • Azadna Jafabad S
      • Calimian M
      • Roshani S
      • and others.

      Estimating the population-attributable fraction of cardiovascular disease at different levels of plasma total cholesterol in a large cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and therapeutic reach.

      J Diabetic Metabolic Disorder. 2020; 19: 1453-1463

    4. Four.

      What role does meat play in a healthy diet?

      anime front. 2018; 8: 5-10

    5. Five.
      • Knuppel A
      • Paper K
      • Fensom Goalkeeper
      • and others.

      Meat consumption and cancer risk: a prospective analysis in the UK Biobank.

      Int J Epidemiol. 2020; 49: 1540-1552

    6. 6.
      • World Cancer Research Fund
      • American Cancer Institute

      Diet, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Cancer: A Global Perspective: An Overview of the Third Expert Report.

    Article information

    Publication history

    Publication date: August 6, 2022

    Identity

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01283-1

    Copyright

    © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    science direct

    Visit this article on ScienceDirect



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    • Website

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