Arkansas’ Republicans lead the Senate, Governor and Attorney General, all with double-digit leads in the race against the Democratic opposition.
In the latest Talk Business & Politics survey of 835 potential voters in Arkansas, Senator John Boozman, former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Lt. It is suggested that he won against his Democratic rival.
All three races were tested with the latest TB&P-Hendrix Poll.
Q. If the U.S. Senate election were today, who would be the next candidate?
will you vote?
43.5% Senator John Boozman (Republican)
30.5% Natalie James (Democrat)
5% Kenneth Cates (L)
21% undecided
Q. If there was a gubernatorial election today, who would be the next candidate?
will you vote?
51% Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican)
40% Chris Jones (Democrat)
2% Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)
7% undecided
Q. If the Attorney General election was held today, which of the following would it be?
Will you vote for the candidate?
49% Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin (Republican)
32% Jesse Gibson (Democrat)
19% undecided
“We never expect these races to end at the numbers that baseline polls show. We expect a dramatic uptick for well-funded candidates,” said Roby Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics. “While the trend line in this poll suggests that independents are less Republican-leaning than they have been in the past, we need to see this phenomenon occur over multiple election cycles to call it a pendulum swing. there is.”
On Monday, Talk Business & Politics will release poll results on issues 1, 2, and 3. Findings related to abortion and recreational marijuana have already been published.
analysis
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the creation and analysis of polls.
Dr. Jay Barth, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Hendricks College, is an active participant in Democratic politics and helped produce and analyze the latest poll. He analyzed the results of the poll as follows.
“This survey gives Arkansas voters an opportunity to gauge their heat in the three big races that will be decided in November: the U.S. Senate, Governor and Attorney General. All three. , it is clear that the Republicans have a huge advantage and are very likely to celebrate victory on November 8. But Sen. Meanwhile, current Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin has built a strong coalition in his race to become state attorney general.
“In his election, Boozman will perform evenly across the state’s geographic quadrants, performing fairly evenly with voters with and without college education (a rarity for Trump-era Republicans. ). In a race with a big age gap, Boozman outperforms the larger, more accessible voters over 65, while his opponent, Natalie James, holds a large lead over the youngest voters. The gender gap is also evident in the large number of women who are undecided about their choices in the U.S. Senate elections: about three-quarters each of Democrats and Republicans support their party’s candidate. But Boozman wins a majority of independent votes, and underfunded James becomes the first black man to represent Arkansas in Washington state history, but wins a majority of the voter group. has not attracted the support of black voters.
“Although the Senate election has shown many undecided votes, in the high-profile Arkansas gubernatorial race, almost all voters chose their candidate. While she still maintains a double-digit lead in the race, she also contributed millions of dollars in campaign coffers to the fall campaign’s television campaign. Yet Sanders boasts of a Trump coalition base of white, male, and rural voters over the age of 45 with no college degree, while Democrat Chris Jones He has put together a coalition of college-educated and young urban/suburban voters swaths of voters of color to stay in the game to some degree. ), while Sanders, the state’s first female governor, won a majority of male voters and only slightly more female voters, although the gender gap remains. He’s had an excellent record for a Republican with
“Republican Attorney General nominee Tim Griffin does the best job of the three leading Republican nominees in bridging the more historic Republican establishment and Trump’s coalition. Griffin, for example, performed well with both voters with and without a college degree, was the most solid performer among Republicans across age groups, and competed in the youngest subset of voters. Griffin also draws solid votes from independent voters, poised to lead the ticket in at least the three races we tested. It seems to be in order.”
Robert Kuhn, managing partner of the Impact Management Group, which works with Republican candidates, also helped create and analyze the latest poll. He analyzed the results of the poll as follows.
“Senator John Boozman led the field in his reelection campaign with 44% of the vote, defeating his closest rival Democrat Natalie James by 14 percentage points. Boozman leads James 55%-38% among voters.The fundamentals across Boozman’s demographic group are solid, closing the gap from James. He leads in all but the traditionally Democratic-leaning voters under 30. His voting preference among Republicans (78%) is , indicating that support from the constituency grew after primary school, and now he leads James as an independent by 6 percentage points.Boozman trails James by 45% among voters without a college degree. Leading by 26%, with a 2 percentage point lead among voters with degrees Men overwhelmingly favor Boozman (51% vs 30%), leading women by 6 percentage points Undecided voters aside , the headwinds some Republicans see against independents and women don’t seem to be blowing on Boozman in this race, and he’s set to secure his next term in the Senate this November.
“Sarah Huckabee Sanders leads Democratic opponent Chris Jones by 11%, with only 7% of undecided voters in the race. Jones benefits from no real major issues. Sanders is leading across all age groups except voters under 30, with 45 to They make up the majority of voters aged 64 (51%) and over the age of 65 (58%).Similar to Donald Trump, Sanders thinks he’s strong with non-college voters (57%), and Jones has a degree. voters (51%) with both men (54%) and women (47%) backing Sanders, but with a narrower margin for women (+3%). lead all four congressional districts, with wide margins in CD1 (+22%) and CD4 (+18%).As expected, Sanders’ close relationship with Donald Trump Sanders performed incredibly well against voters who viewed the former president very favorably (95%) and somewhat favorably (87%), based on still has 31% of voters who view Trump as somewhat unfavorable, showing an even broader base of support than the former president.Overall, following the primary season and the recent Dobbs Supreme Court ruling, This current political environment is high for Democrats and potentially low for Republicans, with Sanders’ numbers likely to score a more comfortable victory. Margin as the dollar hit the airwaves.
“Lieutenant. Governor Tim Griffin leads his opponent Jesse Gibson by 17% in the race for Attorney General, the widest margin of any district tested. Griffin said: He leads in all age groups except those under 30. Republican voters are well ahead of Griffin (85%), who leads the independents by 13%. Griffin’s support is predominantly male (57% to 29%), but also female (+8%).Griffin is the top voter in all four House districts, CD4 and CD2. We have the best support in.”
methodology
The survey of 835 Arkansas potential voters was conducted on September 12, 2022 with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
Responses were collected via SMS over the phone. The poll is slightly weighted to take into account key demographics such as age, ethnicity, education and gender. Additional methods are available upon request.
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce or rebroadcast information from this poll, with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link to this particular story is also required for digital or online use by other media outlets.
For an interview, email Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock. [email protected]
